Arbitrage calculator: guaranteed profit stake split
1win holds a Curaçao 8048/JAZ licence and prices 40 000+ marchés every day. This free calculateur d'arbitrage finds the guaranteed-profit stake split across two outcome cotes. S'inscrire with code promo XLBONUS to open ton compte before you place your first arb.
2-way calculateur d'arbitrage
How this calculator works
Arbitrage betting (also called "arbing") exploits price differences across bookmakers to guarantee a profit regardless of outcome. For a 2-way marché, a risk-free situation exists when the sum of the inverse of each cotes is less than 1.00.
The arb percentage formula is: arb% = (1/cotes1 + 1/cotes2). If this sum is below 1.00, an arbitrage opportunity exists. The lower the arb%, the larger the guaranteed profit margin.
Stake allocation for Outcome 1 uses: stake1 = total x (1/cotes1) / arb%. Outcome 2 receives the remainder. This ensures both outcomes return the same total payout.
Par exemple, with Outcome 1 at 2.10 and Outcome 2 at 2.05, the arb% = (1/2.10 + 1/2.05) = 0.4762 + 0.4878 = 0.9640. Since this is below 1.00, an arb exists. On a total stake of 100, the guaranteed profit is 100 / 0.9640 - 100 = 3.73 units.
Stake allocation is proportional to the probabilité implicite of each outcome. The higher-cotes outcome receives a smaller stake; the lower-cotes outcome receives a larger stake. Both produce identical returns on a win.
In practice, real-time pricing and account restrictions make arbing difficult at most bookmakers. This calculator is intended primarily for understanding the math and for quick checks on promotional marchés where cotes may be inflated.
The calculator assumes no commission is charged. Lay bets (at exchanges) carry commission which reduces guaranteed profit. Use the Matched Bet calculator for commission-adjusted lay calculations.
Why use it at 1win
1win offers 40 000+ marchés with competitive decimal pricing. Use code XLBONUS when you register to start with a boosted bankroll and explore all available marchés.
FAQ
What arb percentage is profitable?
Any arb% below 100% (expressed as a decimal below 1.00) is profitable. Lower percentages yield higher guaranteed profit. Anything above 1.00 means no arb exists.
Do bookmakers allow arbitrage betting?
Most bookmakers restrict or limit accounts identified as arbers. Arbing is legal but can lead to stake restrictions or account closures. Always check conditions générales.
Can this work for 3-way marchés?
Oui, the principle extends to 3 outcomes: arb% = (1/o1 + 1/o2 + 1/o3). The calculateur surebet on this site handles 3-way marchés explicitly.
Why must I split stakes proportionally?
Proportional stakes ensure equal return regardless of outcome. Unequal stakes would mean one outcome returns more than another, creating exposure to loss.
What is the difference between arbitrage and a surebet?
They are the same concept. "Arbitrage" is the financial term; "surebet" is the paris sportifs community term. Both refer to guaranteed profit from cotes discrepancies.