Calculator criteriu Kelly: optimal stake sizing
1win is licențiat under Curaçao 8048/JAZ and offers 400,000+ registered players a sportsbook with 40,000+ piețe. This free Calculator criteriu Kelly shows you the optimal stake size for any edge you hold over the bookmaker. Apply code XLBONUS at înregistrare and put your bankroll to work immediately.
Calculator criteriu Kelly
Cum funcționează acest calculator
The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula developed by John L. Kelly Jr. in 1956 to determine the fraction of a bankroll that maximises the long-run logarithmic growth rate of wealth. It is the most rigorously derived bankroll management rule in existence.
The full Kelly formula is: f* = (bp - q) / b, where b is the net decimal cote (decimal - 1), p is your estimated probability of winning, and q = 1 - p. For example, if the cote are 2.00 (b = 1.00) and you estimate a 55% win probability, f* = (1.00 x 0.55 - 0.45) / 1.00 = 0.10, meaning 10% of your bankroll.
A negative Kelly result means the bet has no edge: the implied probability of the cote exceeds your estimated win probability. The calculator displays this as 0% and flags the negative edge.
Many professional bettors use Half Kelly (0.5x) or Quarter Kelly (0.25x). These fractions reduce variance significantly at a modest cost to long-run growth rate. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but carries substantial short-term drawdown risk. With Half Kelly, the standard deviation of outcomes roughly halves.
Cifra edge afișată este (p x zecimal) - 1, reprezentând randamentul dvs. așteptat pe unitate mizată. Un avantaj de 5% pe un pariu de 10 unități generează 0,50 unități de valoare așteptată pe pariu în medie.
Accurately estimating win probability is the hardest part of applying Kelly. If your probability estimate is wrong by even a few percentage points, Kelly can recommend stakes that are too large. Many practitioners apply a further 50% haircut to their estimates as a safety margin, effectively running at Quarter Kelly even when they select Half Kelly mode.
De ce să îl folosești la 1win
1win covers 30+ sports with competitive cote across 40,000+ daily piețe. If you have identified an edge, Kelly tells you exactly how much to stake. Register with XLBONUS to open an account and start applying systematic bankroll management from your first bet.
Întrebări frecvente
What is Full Kelly vs Half Kelly?
Kelly integral pariază fracția teoretic optimă, dar are o varianță ridicată pe termen scurt. Kelly la jumătate pariază jumătate din acea fracție, reducând aproximativ la jumătate varianța și păstrând circa 75% din rata optimă de creștere. Kelly la un sfert este și mai conservator.
What does a negative Kelly result mean?
Un rezultat negativ înseamnă că pariul nu are niciun avantaj: prețul bookmaker-ului implică o probabilitate mai mare de câștig decât estimarea dvs. proprie. Nu ar trebui să plasați acest pariu conform teoriei Kelly.
How accurate must my probability estimate be?
Even a 2-3 percentage point error in probability can materially change the recommended stake. Always apply a margin of safety, and many professionals use Half or Quarter Kelly to account for estimation error.
Can Kelly be used for jocuri de casino?
Kelly applies to any bet with known cote and positive expected value. Most jocuri de casino have negative expected value, making Kelly recommend zero stake. It is most useful for pariuri sportive and trading.
What is the "edge" in the Kelly formula?
Edge = (probability x decimal cote) - 1. It represents expected return per unit staked. A 5% edge means you gain 0.05 units on average per unit bet over many repetitions.