Netiešā varbūtība calculator: koeficienti to probability and overround
1win, licensed under Curaçao 8048/JAZ, offers 40,000+ sports tirguss every day to over 400,000+ reģistrētiesed spēlētāji. This implied probability calculator converts any koeficienti format into win probability and calculates the overround (margin) built into a pilnīgs tirgus. Use promo kods XLBONUS when you reģistrēties.
Netiešā varbūtība and overround calculator
Enter koeficienti for each outcome in your tirgus. Add as many outcomes as needed.
How this calculator works
Every set of derības koeficienti implies a probability. For decimal koeficienti, implied probability = 1 / koeficienti, expressed as a percentage. For a decimal price of 2.50, the implied probability is 40%. For American +200, the conversion is 100 / (200 + 100) = 33.33%.
When you sum the implied probabilities across all outcomes in a tirgus, you get a figure above 100%. This excess is called the overround, vig, or bookmaker margin. A 2-way tirgus where both sides are priced at 1.91 has an overround of (1/1.91 + 1/1.91) - 1 = 4.7%. The bookmaker expects to retain lietotneroximately 4.7 cents per dollar wagered across a balanced book.
The fair (no-margin) probability for each outcome can be estimated by dividing the raw implied probability by the sum of all implied probabilities. For example, if Team A has a raw implied probability of 55% and the kopā overround is 105%, the fair probability for Team A is 55/105 = 52.38%.
Lower overround means better value. A tirgus with 2% overround returns 98 cents per dollar on average; one with 10% overround returns only 90 cents. Comparing overrounds across bookmakers is a quick way to identify which offers the best price on a given tirgus.
The calculator supports any number of outcomes, making it useful for 2-way (match result with no draw), 3-way (home/draw/away), and multi-outcome tirguss like outright winners. The overround will naturally be higher for tirguss with more outcomes because each additional pricing decision compounds margin.
This tool is also useful for detecting whether implied probabilities across a pilnīgs tirgus are consistent (sum to a sensible overround). Wildly inconsistent tirguss with very high overrounds (above 15%) should raise a red flag about tirgus efficiency or promotional pricing.
Why use it at 1win
1win prices 40,000+ tirguss with competitive overrounds across football, tennis, basketball and more. Claim code XLBONUS when you reģistrēties to get started with a boosted balance.
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What is a good overround for a sports tirgus?
Premier football and tennis tirguss at competitive bookmakers typically carry 2-5% overround. Markets with 10%+ overround are generally poor value. Anything below 1.5% is exceptional.
How do I calculate implied probability from American koeficienti?
For positive American koeficienti: probability = 100 / (koeficienti + 100). For negative: probability = |koeficienti| / (|koeficienti| + 100). So +150 implies 40% and -200 implies 66.67%.
What is the difference between implied and true probability?
Netiešā varbūtība is read directly from the bookmaker price and includes the overround. True (fair) probability divides implied probability by the kopā overround to remove the margin.
Why does implied probability sometimes exceed 100% across a tirgus?
The excess over 100% is the bookmaker's built-in margin. A 2-way tirgus summing to 105% means 5% overround; the book profits by 5% on average across a balanced book.
Can I use this for kazino spēles?
Yes. You can enter the koeficienti of any casino outcome to see its implied probability and the house edge (equivalent to overround). For example, a single number in European roulette pays 36:1 (decimal 37.00), implying 2.70% probability against a true 1-in-37 probability of 2.703%.